There is no reason why the dollar will not rise in price in Azerbaijan.
As you know, the main factor influencing the exchange rate of a country’s national currency is the state of the balance of payments. The Central Bank did not disclose the state of the balance of payments for the first half of this year. However, from the data for the first quarter of this year, we can clearly see that there is a sharp decline in the balance of payments. If in the first quarter of last year the current account surplus was $3.4 billion, then in the first quarter of this year it fell by almost half - to $1.7 billion.
The year-on-year decline is greater. So, if in 2022 the current account surplus was $23.5 billion, then in 2023 it fell to $8.3 billion. As can be seen from the published official indicators, the current account surplus of the balance of payments has decreased by 2.8 times over the past year.
Although the main factor influencing the exchange rate of a national currency is the state of the balance of payments, significant changes also occur in other important factors. If we look at these factors influencing the exchange rate of the national currency over the past 3 years, we can clearly see that there are serious declines.
Oil production in the country over the past 3 years:
January-June 2022 – 16.4 million tons;
January-June 2023 – 15.2 million tons;
January-June 2024 – 14.4 million tons.

Crude oil exports over the last 3 years in value terms:
January-June 2022 – $9.4 billion;
January-June 2023 – $7.8 billion;
January-June 2024 – $7 billion.

Declining oil production and exports, in turn, reduces the flow of foreign currency into the country. In parallel with the decrease in the inflow of foreign currency, the demand for foreign currency also increases.
For comparison, let’s look at the amount of currency sold at the currency auction on August 1-8 over the last 3 years:
August 1–8, 2022 – $104.9 million;
August 1–8, 2023 – $93 million;
August 1–8, 2024 – $200 million.
As you can see, the demand for foreign currency in the first 8 days of August this year more than doubled compared to the same period last year.
Among the important factors putting pressure on the manat is the devaluation of the national currencies of Azerbaijan’s main trading partner against the dollar. There are 3 main countries where Azerbaijan imports products. These are China, Russia and Türkiye. According to data for the first half of this year, these three countries accounted for 49% of Azerbaijan's total imports. If the national currencies of these countries depreciate against the dollar, this creates great pressure on the manat.
Over the past 2 years, the exchange rate of the national currencies of China, Russia and Turkey against the dollar has changed as follows:

Devaluation of the national currency in these countries, where Azerbaijan is the main trading partner for imports, may increase imports slightly. This, in turn, will lead to an increase in demand for dollars in Azerbaijan. Because people will try to buy more currency to bring goods.
From the data we have presented, it is clearly visible that the pressure on the national currency, the manat, has sharply increased. In such a situation, there is a high probability that the dollar will soon strengthen against the manat. But we also note that the dollar exchange rate in Azerbaijan is determined by the Central Bank, and not on the basis of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market, so it is very difficult to predict when and at what level the exchange rate will change.

Economist expert Allahverdi Aydin