By Sabina Alizade
In recent weeks, the international community has witnessed a significant escalation of tensions between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), raising serious concerns about a possible armed conflict. The worsening situation has resulted from a series of events and statements made by NATO and its member states at the highest level.
A central point of tension is the Stoltenberg 2024 plan, developed by NATO to prepare for a global conflict with Russia. According to sources, the concept of this plan was approved by alliance generals at a summit in Madrid in the summer of 2022. The main strategy of the plan is to provoke Russia into making the first strike, which would justify NATO's subsequent large-scale military intervention. Should NATO's provocation be successful, Russia would be able to use its missiles against air defense systems, while Ukraine could utilize the F-16 fighter jets provided for further military operations.
The United States and Europe announced the lifting of restrictions on the use of their weapons against Russia, demonstrating the West's readiness to escalate the conflict. Previously, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who had advocated preventing an escalation of the conflict with Moscow, changed his position to support Ukraine's right to self-defense and strikes on Russian territory using NATO-provided weapons.
The flight of NATO reconnaissance drones near Russian borders, including over Krasnodar Territory, Crimea, and the Kerch Bridge, indicates NATO's intent to actively monitor and provoke Russia into conflict.
Igor Korotchenko, Director General of the Caspian Institute for Strategic Studies (Russia) , stated in an interview with News.Az that currently, all leading states of the world, having their own interests and defending them, are conducting information warfare in one way or another.
According to him, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius' statement at a press conference in Berlin about a possible Russian attack on NATO in five years is a clear propaganda statement. "This was done for several reasons. Firstly, all statements by European politicians should be viewed through the prism of the military conflict around Ukraine. The desire to demonize Russia stems from the need to ensure that significant financial tranches are allocated to support Ukraine by all EU countries without exception," he said.
"Statements that Russia is preparing to attack NATO are intended to scare Europeans who do not want to tighten their belts to continue and fund the war in Ukraine. This is done to make ordinary people on the streets of Europe live in fear of Russia and not question their leaders," he noted.
He added that Russia has no plans to attack NATO as an attack on NATO would mean a major global war with a nuclear exchange, and there are enough sensible people in the Russian leadership to understand this. "NATO, which has repeatedly initiated aggressive wars such as the attack on Yugoslavia, is expanding its sphere of responsibility to the entire Asia-Pacific region, providing automatic support to the US in the event of a conflict with China over Taiwan . All this demonstrates the aggressive nature of modern European civilization. Yes, I believe that other countries, such as France, face completely hypocritical and vile statements and practical policies," the expert pointed out.
Korotchenko also emphasized that the old neocolonial traditions, which they try to apply in the modern system of international relations, lie at the heart of European mentality today. "Therefore, I believe that all normal countries, including those of the global South and the post-Soviet space, should conduct their foreign policy based primarily on the protection of national interests rather than following Washington's dictates," he said.
He noted that currently, there is a risk that a NATO contingent could enter Ukraine and participate in battles against Russian armed forces under one or another military scenario. "This would inevitably lead to a war with NATO, and in this case, Russia would have a free hand for any format of military response. Recent exercises, during which the options for strikes with tactical nuclear warheads were practiced, show that Russia, recognizing and assessing the risks, is ready to take all necessary and tough response measures in the event of a NATO attack on Russia from the Ukrainian side or involvement in military operations. I hope for the sanity of European politicians and NATO as a whole, who will avoid hasty and fatal decisions capable of bringing the world to the brink of a third world war," he added.
In an interview with News.Az, Latvian expert Einars Graudinsstated that various experts and politicians cite different timelines for a possible war between NATO and Russia in five years. In his opinion, this is more of a psychological war and an element of hybrid conflict between NATO and Russia with the support of information warfare.
"This confrontation between NATO and Russia will not escalate into a direct military clash in five or even eight years. Because wars are waged not by armies, but by economies. This has been repeatedly proven in world history through the example of hundreds of wars," he noted.
He said that looking at today's real numbers and current state of affairs, Russia's share in global industrial production is about 1%. "Russia faces problems with its military-industrial complex, caused by both subjective and objective factors, leading to technological lag," the expert noted.
"This means that Russia lags one, and in some places, two generations behind NATO countries in military technology. We see this clearly in the military operations in Ukraine. Despite the image created by Russia over decades, its military technologies significantly lag behind Western ones, which has been proven on the battlefield," he added.
He also said one of the reasons for the Russian president's visit to North Korea and Vietnam was his desire to acquire weapons.
"I visited Vietnam in the early 1990s. There are enough warehouses with Soviet weapons. I can say that the Vietnamese army is well-trained but armed with weapons produced under Soviet licenses. This shows that today Russia lacks both military-technological and industrial power, and its army struggles to hold back Ukrainian troops on the front line. I want to note that the front line is 1,200 km long, with active combat occurring on 800-900 km of it," the expert said.
He suggested that considering all this, it is logical to conclude that Russia is not capable of attacking NATO, and anyone who can analyze the military and economic capabilities of Russia will say the same.
"The President of Russia often uses nuclear blackmail during the aggression against Ukraine. If the president does not say this, then it is done by Dmitry Medvedev, the Deputy Chairman of the Security Council. We clearly see that nuclear exercises or exercises involving nuclear forces have been constantly conducted recently, including on the territory of Belarus," he said.
The expert pointed out that NATO must somehow respond to this. " If the Kremlin plays too actively with the red button, NATO must show that this is a game that can be played together . Therefore, I do not rule out that if Russia continues nuclear blackmail, nuclear weapons along with their carriers could be placed closer to the border, for example, in Poland, 100 km from Lviv, so that the Kremlin understands that this is a joint game," he added.
The expert noted that the peace summit in Switzerland also showed that NATO would not allow anyone in the world to terrorize a country, threatening the entire planet.
"This will not be easy. It is just a matter of time. I am speaking from the perspective of military reality, not political statements. The military reality is that Russia cannot defeat NATO either today or in five years, and I can confidently say that even in 10 years this will be impossible. But I cannot confidently say that there will be a country called the Russian Federation in 10 years. And even if it exists, it will not be in the form it is today," he said.
P.S. The likelihood of an armed conflict between Russia and NATO today is at its highest level in decades. The possible use of tactical nuclear weapons and the real threat of a global war require urgent diplomatic efforts to prevent catastrophic consequences. The international community must strive to resolve the conflict to avoid a new Cold War and maintain peace and stability in the region and the world as a whole.
